Archive Details

Year 2024
Volume/Issue/Review Month Volume-XVII | Issue-II | Jul.-Dec.
Title The Gold Price and Macroeconomic Fundamentals: A Nexus
Authors K. Kalidasu , S. Prasad
Broad area Finance
Abstract

As the gold price is hiking tremendously, it is legitimate to validate the association between the gold price and economic stability. The study explores the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and the gold prices using panel data regression from 2000 to 2021. It focuses on two independent variables, the stock exchange and exchange rate, and two control variables, FDI net flow, and total reserve. Data sources include Bloomberg, OECD Statistics, and the World Gold Council. The pooled OLS regression findings highlight gold as a protective measure against economic uncertainty, with investors seeking refuge in gold when facing stock market or currency instability. There is little evidence to suggest that foreign investment inflows have a significant impact on gold prices, indicating that FDI does not notably affect gold prices in the short term. The statistically significant and positive impact of total reserves on gold prices suggests that central banks regard gold as a safe haven asset. An increase in gold holdings by central banks can signal confidence in the global economy, thus boosting gold demand. However, it is crucial to note that this model only captures the correlation between gold prices and the selected variables and does not account for other factors, such as geopolitical events or mining supply fluctuations, that could affect gold prices.

File
Referenceses

Apergis, N., Cooray, A., Khraief, N., & Apergis, I. (2019). Do gold prices respond to real interest rates? Evidence from the Bayesian Markov Switching VECM model. Journal of international financial markets, institutions and Money60, 134-148.

 

Arouri, M. E. H., Lahiani, A., & Nguyen, D. K. (2015). World gold prices and stock returns in China: Insights for hedging and diversification strategies. Economic Modelling44, 273-282

 

Bhunia, A., & Pakira, S. (2014). Investigating the impact of gold price and exchange rates on sensex: evidence of India. European journal of accounting, finance and business2(1), 1-11.

 

Bin Sukri, M. K. A., & Mohd Zain, N. H. (2015). The relationship between selected macroeconomic factors and gold price in malaysia. International Journal of Business, Economics & Law8(1).

 

Chaity, N. S., & Islam, K. M. (2021). Uncovering Opportunistic Earning Management Practices by the Listed Private Commercial Banks of Bangladesh. South Asian Journal of Management, 28(2).

 

Chiang, T. C. (2024). Evidence of Gold as a Hedge or Safe Haven Against Risks and Policy Uncertainty. In Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance (pp. 77-109). Emerald Publishing Limited.

 

Choudhry, T., Hassan, S. S., & Shabi, S. (2015). Relationship between gold and stock markets during the global financial crisis: Evidence from nonlinear causality tests. International Review of Financial Analysis41, 247-256.

 

Fang, L., Yu, H., & Xiao, W. (2018). Forecasting gold futures market volatility using macroeconomic variables in the United States. Economic Modelling72, 249-259.

 

Ghosh, I., & Chaudhuri, T. D. (2018). Stock Market Portfolio Construction: A Four-stage Model Based on Fractal Analysis. South Asian Journal of Management, 25(4), 117-149

 

Giannellis, N., &Koukouritakis, M. (2019). Gold price and exchange rates: A panel smooth transition regression model for the G7 countries. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance49, 27-46

 

Gokmenoglu, K. K., &Fazlollahi, N. (2015). The interactions among gold, oil, and stock market: Evidence from S&P500. Procedia Economics and Finance25, 478-488

 

Haque, M. A., Topal, E., &Lilford, E. (2015). Relationship between the gold price and the Australian dollar-US dollar exchange rate. Mineral Economics28, 65-78.

 

Jain, A., & Biswal, P. C. (2016). Dynamic linkages among oil price, gold price, exchange rate, and stock market in India. Resources Policy49, 179-185.

 

Pachiyappan, S., & Chandrakala, G. (2022). Do the macroeconomic factors influence the volatility of gold price?: An empirical study. Journal of Commerce & Accounting Research, 11(2), 37-44.

 

Qian, Y., Ralescu, D. A., & Zhang, B. (2019). The analysis of factors affecting global gold price. Resources Policy64, 101478.

 

Raza, N., Shahzad, S. J. H., Tiwari, A. K., & Shahbaz, M. (2016). Asymmetric impact of gold, oil prices and their volatilities on stock prices of emerging markets. Resources Policy49, 290-301.

 

Shaique, M., Aziz, A., &Herani, G. M. (2016). Impact of gold prices on stock exchange market: a case of Karachi stock exchange market of Pakistan. International Journal of Accounting and Economics Studies4(1), 60-63.

 

Shakil, M. H., Mustapha, I. H. M., Tasnia, M., & Saiti, B. (2018). Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An application of ARDL approach. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science23(44), 60-76.

 

Shylaja, H. N., &Pachiyappan, S. (2022). Dynamic Inter-Linkages Among Emerging Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis of Select Stock Market Indices of the BRICS Countries. South Asian Journal of Management, 29(2), 37-59.

 

Sjaastad, L. A. (2008). The price of gold and the exchange rates: Once again. Resources Policy33(2), 118-124.

 

Sudasinghe, S. L., & Herath, N. P. (2022). The Cause-and-Effect Relationship between Trades of Domestic and Foreign Investors and Stock Returns: Evidence from Colombo Stock Exchange. South Asian Journal of Management, 29(3), 116-139.